The
ESP
model approach is based on the observation that a good fit to the
distribution of the yearly accumulated fluence from the solar maximum periods
of the solar cycles 20, 21 and 22 is obtained with a log-normal distribution.
It is deduced from this observation that the distribution of the logarithm of
the n-year accumulated fluence should also have a gaussian distribution with a
mean and a relative variance that can be expressed as a function of the 1-year
distribution mean and variance as follows:
|
|
(I-3) |
and
|
|
(I-4) |
